Utilidad predictiva de mortalidad de la escala rápida de emergencias (REMS) en un Hospital de alta complejidad.

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Autores

Miguel Ángel Saavedra
Nelson Alfonso Jaime
Christian Fabián Chávez
Juan Esteban Orjuela
Ronald Raúl Rengifo

Resumen

Objetivo: determinar la utilidad predictiva de la escala rápida de emergencias (REMS) en términos de mortalidad intrahospitalaria y estancia de pacientes adultos sean quirúrgicos o no que ingresan al servicio de urgencias del Hospital de San José de Bogotá. Método: estudio analítico, retrospectivo de pacientes que ingresaron a urgencias de un  hospital de cuarto nivel de Bogotá, Colombia, entre septiembre 2016 y febrero 2017. Resultados: se incluyeron 1080 pacientes aleatoriamente con una frecuencia de muerte intrahospitalaria de 10.19% (n: 110), mediana de edad en los fallecidos de 73 años vs 55 años en los no fallecidos. La mediana calculada del puntaje de la escala REMS fue significativamente mayor en el grupo con  de muerte intrahospitalaria 7 (5-10)  que en los que no fallecieron  3 (0-3). Según el modelo de regresión logística las variables más relacionadas con muerte intrahospitalaria fueron: días de estancia intrahospitalaria (OR: 1.08 IC 95% 1.04-1.12), escala REMS (OR: 1.5 IC 95% 1.34 -1.7), inmunocompromiso (OR: 6.27 IC 95% 2.12-18.5) y patología oncológica (OR 12 IC 95% 6.25-26.6). El punto de corte asociado con mortalidad fue de 6 para la escala, teniendo en cuenta las otras variables que impactaron en la mortalidad se establece un OR de 4.3 (IC 95% 2.3 - 8). El poder discriminativo de la prueba da una AUC de 0.97 considerado bueno. Conclusiones: en nuestra población la escala REMS fue un buen predictor de mortalidad intrahospitalaria en urgencias por condición quirúrgica o no, considerándola como buena herramienta para la toma de decisiones clínicas, derivación y usos de recursos. No es posible establecer esta relación en condición traumática debido al tamaño de la muestra. Teniendo en cuenta el análisis de otras variables es posible establecer una nueva escala en la cual se incluya el REMS y variables asociadas estadísticamente significativas.

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