Covid-19 worldwide forecasts for the year 2021
Predicción del COVID-19 a nivel mundial para el año 2021
Article Sidebar
PDF (Español (España))
FLIP
HTML (Español (España))
EPUB (Español (España))
Main Article Content
Abstract
Introduction: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has spread rapidly around the world since it emerged in Wuhan, China in late 2019. Objective: to describe COVID-19 worldwide forecasts of infections and deaths over the year 2021. Methodology: the method used to calculate the prediction was the Holt model. Data was analyzed with the SPSS version 25.0 statistical package. Results: according to the COVID-19 global projection for the year 2021, there will be an estimated 96’878.746 cases by the end of January 2021 and 283’662.031 by the end of December 2021. Conclusion: the HOLT model illustrates a possible scenario of the disease in terms of people infected and killed in year 2021, which in light of the results is not at all flattering for the world, so isolation measures need to continue in order to achieve stabilization of the disease.
Keywords:
Downloads
Article Details
References
Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, Wang X, Zhou L, Tong Y, et al. Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia. N. Engl. J. Med.. 2020;382(13):1199-207. doi: 10.1056 / NEJMoa2001316
Zhou F, Yu T, Du R, Fan G, Liu Y, Liu Z, et al. Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study. Lancet. 2020;395(10229):1054-62. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30566-3
Hoffmann M, Kleine-Weber H, Schroeder S, Kruger N, Herrler T, Erichsen S, et al. SARS-CoV-2 Cell Entry Depends on ACE2 and TMPRSS2 and Is Blocked by a Clinically Proven Protease Inhibitor. Cell. 2020;181(2):271-80 e8. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2020.02.052
Grasselli G, Zangrillo A, Zanella A, Antonelli M, Cabrini L, Castelli A, et al. Baseline Characteristics and Outcomes of 1591 Patients Infected With SARS-CoV-2 Admitted to ICUs of the Lombardy Region, Italy. Jama. 2020;323(16):1574-81. doi: 10.1001 / jama.2020.5394
Docherty AB, Harrison EM, Green CA, Hardwick HE, Pius R, Norman L, et al. Features of 20 133 UK patients in hospital with covid-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol: prospective observational cohort study. BMJ. 2020;369:m1985. doi: 10.1136/bmj.m1985
Richardson S, Hirsch JS, Narasimhan M, Crawford JM, McGinn T, Davidson KW, et al. Presenting Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Outcomes Among 5700 Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 in the New York City Area. Jama. 2020;323(20):2052-9. Epub 2020/04/23.
Petrilli CM, Jones SA, Yang J, Rajagopalan H, O'Donnell L, Chernyak Y, et al. Factors associated with hospital admission and critical illness among 5279 people with coronavirus disease 2019 in New York City: prospective cohort study. BMJ. 2020;369:m1966.
Lewnard JA, Liu VX, Jackson ML, Schmidt MA, Jewell BL, Flores JP, et al. Incidence, clinical outcomes, and transmission dynamics of severe coronavirus disease 2019 in California and Washington: prospective cohort study. BMJ. 2020;369:m1923.
Dryhurst S, Schneider CR, Kerr J, Freeman ALJ, Recchia G, van der Bles AM, et al. Risk perceptions of COVID-19 around the world. Journal of Risk Research. 2020;23(7-8):994-1006.
Díaz-Pinzón, J.E. (2020). Estudio de los resultados del contagio por COVID-19 a nivel mundial. Repert Med Cir. 2020;29(Supl. Núm. 1):65-71. DOI: 10.31260/RepertMedCir.01217372.1089
Díaz-Pinzón, J.E. Correlación y regresión lineal de la evaluación tiempo y puntaje con recurso interactivo flash. INNOVA Research Journal. 2017;2(10):1-8. doi: https://doi.org/10.33890/innova.v2.n10.2017
Betancourt D. La tendencia en el suavizamiento exponencial doble o modelo de Holt [Internet]. Ingenio Empresa; 2020 [cited 2020 noviembre 13]; Available from: https://ingenioempresa.com/suavizacion-exponencial-doble/.
Izar JM. Método de Holt [Internet]. ResearchGate; 2019 [cited 2020 noviembre 3]; Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331844153_Metodo_de_Holt.
Camacho A. Método Holt [Internet]. slideshare; 2011 [cited 2020 noviembre 16]; Available from: https://es.slideshare.net/adzarael/mtodo-holt.
Universidad Johns Hopkins. COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU) [Internet]. Universidad Johns Hopkins; 2020 [cited 2020 noviembre 16]; Available from: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6.
Díaz-Pinzón JE. Uso de modelo predictivo para la dinámica de transmisión del COVID-19 en Colombia. Repert Med Cir. 2020;29(Núm.Supl.1):34-44. doi: 10.31260/RepertMedCir.01217372.1056
Díaz-Pinzón JE. Proyección de la propagación del COVID-19 en Colombia. Rev. Med. 2020;28(1):11-20. doi: 10.18359/rmed.4702